The success ofBaldur’s Gate 3came as a surprise to many people. This includes developer Larian Studios, with concurrent player counts surpassing800,000 playerson Steam. It also seemed to surprise another big name in the industry, Microsoft.
DespiteBaldur’s Gate 3generating hype from its early access period, Microsoft may not have thought much of it, according toPolygon. In one part of the Xbox leak emerging from theFTC case, expectations forBaldur’s Gate 3seemed lower than they would turn out.
Xbox chief Phil Spencer started an email chain in May 2022 to discuss the ramifications of delayingStarfieldbefore publicly announcing it. Spencer acknowledged this was a disaster situation as this left a gap for Xbox’s 2022 releases. He instructed executives like Matt Booty and Sarah Bond to fill in the gap left by the empty release schedule.
Among these emails are lists of 3rd party games to potentially add to Game Pass along with the projected cost. These titles ranged fromDying Light 2,evaluated at around $50 million, andSuicide Squadat around $250 million.Baldur’s Gate 3comparatively was called a “second-run Stadia PC RPG” and evaluated at $5 million.
What’s in a run?
Some have pointed out that the term “second-run” mayrefer toisBaldur’s Gate 3initially launching on Google’s Stadia platform, even if some think it sounds like an insult. YetBaldur’s Gate 3was a big deal for the now-dead platform. Its announcement even occurred at the2019 Google Stadiaconference event.
Bizarre how there’s a ton of stories about MS calling BG3 a second-run Stadia RPG as if that’s somehow an insult. It was supposed to launch on Stadia first, ppl. They didn’t say second-rate, they said second-run. In context of what are probably v old notes, it’s not weird
Microsoft’s low-ball evaluation came before Larian Studios announced any console plans forBaldur’s Gate 3and during Stadia’s final months. Hindsight states Microsoft’s amount estimate forBaldur’s Gate 3was laughable, but what the company had to go off last year was a sequel to a dormant franchise whose launch was on PC outside Microsoft’s store and a dying streaming platform. Even Larianseems to take the evaluationat the time in stride.
I adoreBaldur’s Gate 3quite a lot, but its success was shocking to me. Even if $5 million is still low for the kind of game it is, it’s still within a niche genre. A CRPG of its popularity is practically unheard of, and this leaked report only further highlights how big of a surpriseBaldur’s Gate 3really was.
